You can have one of the best quarterbacks in the league. You can have the best committee of running backs in the league. You can have the best wide receivers in the league. None of it would mean anything if you didn’t have the hogs up front to bring it all together. The offensive line is the glue that holds everything together. It’s the engine of the fancy souped up sports car. There were only seven teams that conceded 29 or less sacks a season ago. On the flipside, there were 11 front walls that surrendered 47 or more! Offensive linemen will be hot commodities in 2020 NFL Draft betting, and linemakers know it evidenced by the current line for this draft prop! The number to beat currently checks in at 5.5 with heavy -600 juice attached to the over. It’s 85.7 percent implied probability lets it be known that NFL teams will be shopping for some hogs in the draft’s opening round.
5.5 Over -600
5.5 Under +405
The New York Giants’ offensive line allowed G-Men quarterbacks to get thrown to the turf a total of 43 times last season; an average of 2.7 per game. Danny Dimes looked the part of an NFL caliber quarterback last season, but was forced to run for his life in a majority of starts. Should the Giants hold onto the No. 4 pick, you can’t help but think Dave Gettleman goes out and locks up a hog that will protect the blind side of his No. 1 pick of a year ago for years to come. This is a spot where either Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs or Louisville’s Mekhi Becton is taken off the board. Heck, you could even see Bama’s Jedrick Wills go in this spot!
Regardless of who goes first, more will be in the offing soon after the Giants select their hog of the future. Baker Mayfield and more so Sam Darnold were forced to run for their lives last season with the offensive lines of each team surrendering 41 and 52 sacks respectively. The Arizona Cardinals were also wretched in this department as well in giving up an even 50 sacks. While it would no doubt be tempting to select Jeff Okudah in hopes of replacing the recently traded Patrick Peterson, that would all depend on what the Detroit Lions do at No. 3.
Should they trade down, Okudah would likely be there at No. 8 for the Cards. If so, NFL bettors are likely to not see a hog selected until the Browns at No. 10. With the Jets picking right behind them and needing O-Line help even more, it’s pretty safe to assume three hogs will be off the board with 21 picks remaining in the first round; half way there!
It seriously could be even more at that point should the Tampa Bay Buccaneers try to trade up from No. 14 in hopes of landing one of the upper echelon offensive linemen to allow for Tom Brady to play out his two-year $50 million contract. The Bucs couldn’t run the ball or keep Jameis Winston upright enough last season evidenced by ranking No. 24 in rushing and conceding 47 total sacks or an average of nearly three per game. Brady won’t survive if the line isn’t tended to, so Tampa’s a lock to select a hog early on. That makes it four leaving over bettors needing just two more selected over the final 18 picks!
The Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers owned the two worst offensive lines in the game a season ago with both units giving up 58 overall sacks. The Fins also ranked dead last at rushing the pigskin. With two more first round selections, Miami is a lock to use one of those two picks to shore up the offensive line; especially if the quarterback of the future was snagged earlier in the draft. Ultimately what makes or break this NFL draft prop is whether Michigan’s Cesar Ruiz and Houston’s Josh Jones go in the first round. Even if it’s a split, the over 5.5 cashes the way I have it mapped out. As bad a number of teams were along the offensive line a year ago, I can’t help but think laying heavy chalk on the over will be the prudent thing to do in the opening round of this year’s draft.
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