The betting markets aren’t buying into five quarterbacks being selected in the opening round of the 2020 NFL Draft. The over 4.5 has been steamed early on this past week. It checked in at just over 4-1 early in the day but can now be had at +448. You now have to pony up $685 to make $100 on the under meaning all value has been taken out of the equation at this juncture. There are four teams heading into the draft with a need to select the quarterback of the franchise’s future; them being the Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots. Should all four somehow find a way to snag their shot caller of the future, over bettors would still need another team to hook them up by surprisingly snagging a QB in the first round. Tough sell with the implied probability of the under clocking in at 87.3 percent!
4.5 Over +448
4.5 Under -685
As is always the case, you must identify what teams are needy for the position when breaking down the game film for a proposition wager like this. The four majors have already been discussed up above, so it’s imperative we put the other teams under the microscope, read as much info that’s been made public by every team in terms of what needs their expecting to satisfy. Should we somehow unearth that fifth and final team that could come out of nowhere and snag a hopeful QB1 of the future, we’d be looking at a very, very nice pay-off!
Though Andy Dalton’s quarantined workout with his kids was both adorable and impressive, it doesn’t look like the Cincinnati Bengals will be bringing him back in 2020-21. Not even to help mentor Joe Burrow or whomever, and help show him the ropes before fully taking over. With Zac Taylor and the Bengals upper management making it just about clear as day that they’ll be selecting the reigning Heisman Trophy winner with the first pick in NFL Draft betting, those attacking the over of this prop will be feeling great with the first position off the board being a quarterback. There have however been whispers and rumors flying around that Cincy could be looking to trade down. Should that be the case, Burrow would still likely be a lock to be selected first by whomever they traded with.
Either way, it’s looking like Jordan Love will be going off the board amongst the first 32 overall selections. It’s not just the Bengals that’ve been singing his high praises after coaching him in the Senior Bowl. Supposedly, there are six other teams interested in his services. They include the Miami Dolphins, New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots, Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay Packers and Washington Redskins. If the top end shenanigans ultimately don’t come to fruition, it’s been said that Sean Payton really likes the way Love goes about his business. Should he last until the backend of round 1, it’ll be awfully hard for the Saints to pass at No. 24 knowing full well they only got a few more years at most of Drew Brees leading the offense both efficiently and effectively.
Though Washington used its No.1 pick on a quarterback last season by selecting Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins, he failed to impress over the course of his limited play. Whether he hated playing on a losing team for a replacement coach was the reason why remains to be seen. Bottom line, he didn’t’ look good and was without a doubt the most unimpressive of all the rookie QBs. With that, it’s certainly within the realm of possibility that the Redskins make a move either at No. 2 and bypass selecting Chase Young, or utilize another high draft pick after possibly sending Trent Williams to another team. The new coaching staff might want to completely reset the roster to default settings and start from scratch. Ron Rivera likely wouldn’t have any problem hitching his wagon to either Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert as high as No. 2 or just a bit lower. If not, you can be certain teams like the Dolphins and Chargers will be doing their best to hook over bettors up in the opening round.
Burrow, Tua and Herbert are locks to go in the first round on Thursday night. The more I read about Love, it’s likely safe to assume he’s going in the opening round as well. That leaves over bettors needing one more field general to get drafted in the first round to claim victory Johnny Drama style. But where is that quarterback coming from? We're talking players like Jake Fromm, Jalen Hurts and Jacob Eason. As great of collegiate players each was, it’s farfetched to believe these mid second and third round options somehow find a way into the first round. Why risk having the pick blowup in your face and have a maligned fan base calling for your head when you can sit back and make a more manageable investment later in the draft? I’m having a tough time envisioning that fifth QB snag; because of it I recommend eating all the chalk and riding the under should you want to get involved with some first round prop betting at online sportsbooks.
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