With more teams turning to running backs by committee, the position no longer holds the clout it once did in this day and age of the NFL. Linemakers have set the number to beat of RBs drafted in the first round at just 1.5 letting it be known just how unsatisfactory this year’s crop is in the running back department; tight end checks in at 0.5! On top of all that, heavy juice is currently attached to the under which means the betting markets believe more running backs will be going off the board once the first 32 picks are in the books. Josh Jacobs was the only primary ball carrier selected in the first round a season ago. Let’s take a deep dive into this year’s player pool and see if any has the talent and/or moxie to get selected in the first round. With the under owning a better than 83 percent implied probability of occurring, it won’t be easy to sell!
1.5 Over +349
1.5 Under -497
When attacking a futures prop like this, it would be wise to hit the interwebs and search for team needs heading into the Draft. What we’re only concerned with for this prop is finding out which teams are running back needy. With the position going the way of the dinosaur with so many offenses utilizing a number of ball carriers in their RPO attacks, the list is few and far between. Of the 32 teams entering the draft, I count between 6-8 teams with a potential need to add a running back to its active roster.
The first of those teams is the Atlanta Falcons regardless of the fact that they just inked Todd Gurley in free agency. Remember, it was only a one-year deal. But as bad the team needs a change of pace in the backfield with Devonta Freeman no longer on the roster and Ito Smith always injured, it needs to shore up its defense much more after stinking the joint up the first half of the season. The Falcons are stone cold locks to look to the defensive side of the ball in the first and likely second rounds - Pass!
The second RB needy team that could possibly take a stab at a ball carrier in the first round is the Buffalo Bills. Unfortunately, Sean McDermott’s squad traded their No. 1 pick to the Minnesota Vikings in the trade for Stefon Diggs. So, Buffalo won’t be doing much of anything to help cash over tickets unless it trades up and will likely be more than happy to use its second and third round picks to get a bit younger on defense.
Up next are the Detroit Lions. Matt Patricia’s squad is a chic pick to trade down and acquire more draft picks all the while still getting the player its clamoring for. The trade of Darius Slay to Philadelphia is setting off telltale signs that the Ohio State Buckeyes Jeff Okudah will be roaming the Lions secondary for years to come. It only makes perfect sense with his size and athletic ability anointing him accolades as the best overall cover man in this draft. Though Kerryon Johnson hasn’t been able to stay healthy his first two NFL seasons, Detroit has bigger fish to fry than shoring up its backfield early in this draft.
The Kansas City Chiefs don’t need to improve much of anything to its roster on the offensive side of the ball. So long as Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are in the mix, they’ll be all good. However, the running back position was a bit unreliable last season and you know Andy Reid would love to be able to run the ball more successfully so as to limit the amount of hits his stud QB1 takes over the course of a season. With the No. 32 pick in the draft, I could certainly see KC reaching just a bit in order to add a young stud compliment to Damien Williams who will once again be the primary ball carrier provided he can stay healthy.
No team in the league was worse running the football than the Miami Dolphins a season ago. The offense opened holes for an average of just 72.3 yards per game; dead last! Granted, the team was forced to pass the ball a ton due to being down a bunch in just about every game. Still, less than 73 yards per game is wretched! That said, offensive line help is a bigtime need even though it’s also looking for its quarterback of the future. As it stands, Miami has got two picks in the first round and I don’t foresee either being used on a ball carrier.
Other teams that could potentially look the way of a running back in the first round are the Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers but each team has other pressing needs that lead me to believe they look elsewhere. With that, I have just one team targeted as possibly selecting a running back in the first round so I recommend eating all that chalk and hitting the under should you feel the need to spend a lot to make very little.
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