Ed Reed, Ronnie Lott, Brian Dawkins; the more recent safety trio is considered to be one of the best to ever buckle a chin strap at the NFL level. Then there’s the second tier that includes Steve Atwater, John Lynch, and Eric Berry. Is the DNA of those players entrenched in the genome of a player looking to land a gig in the NFL for 2022? That doesn’t look to be the case when going by the current odds of total safeties drafted in the first round at online sportsbooks. Those booking prop bets for the NFL Draft have set the number to beat at a measly 1.5. So you’re telling me there’s likely just one difference maker at the safety position heading into the draft? I find that hard to believe! The betting market seems to be in agreeance with that statement considering a repulsive amount of juice is currently attached to the high side of that impost. Simply out of spite, there’s no choice but to hit the over but I refuse to lay any type of chalk like that if not hedged with a run or puck-line to turn the wager into a single run or goal-type wager. That can’t be done with this example, so I’ll be sitting it out. Regardless, I still like the over.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Total Safeties Drafted in 1st Round
Over 1.5 -193
Under 1.5 +153
The safety position has been overlooked by front offices for a number of years now. It’s all about securing shutdown cover men in this day and age of the NFL that penalizes defenses when they simply just breathe on opposing quarterbacks or wide receivers the wrong way. That train of thought allowed for the Los Angeles Chargers to land a PTPer in Derwin James with the 17th pick of the 2018 draft. When healthy, James has been nothing short of an enormous difference maker the last four seasons. So who has the intangibles of becoming the next Derwin James?
From the looks of it, Notre Dame’s Kyle Hamilton is predicted to be the goods. The former Golden Domer did nothing but shine throughout his stay in South Bend in accruing 138 total tackles – 97 of which were of the solo variety – 16 pass break-ups, and eight interceptions. His combination of size and speed paired with great foot work and instincts allowed for him to make plays all over the field. Though his 2021-22 season was cut short due to a knee injury which likely led to slower than expected 40 times at the combine and ND’s pro day, he’s still expected to be selected in the first round of NFL Draft betting.
Remember, all his stats were accrued in just 2.5 seasons worth of games! He’s currently a +500 pup to be drafted within the first five picks, and offers up attractive 80-1 and 10-1 rates of return if either Jacksonville or Detroit comes from out of nowhere to select him with the No. 1 or No. 2 picks respectively. If he goes in the top-five, it’d likely be the New York Jets that acquires his services with the secondary in need of major help in every way, shape, and form. However, his draft stock has plummeted since first being touted as a top-five pick evidenced by his draft position prop now clocking in at 8.5 with noticeable -150 juice attached to the over. Either way, Hamilton will be selected amongst the first 32 picks.
That was the easy part. Now it’s time for the hard part that deals with pinpointing the other safety that could potentially get drafted in the first round. The options are limited. They include Michigan’s Daxton Hill, Penn State’s Jaquan Brisker, and Baylor’s Jalen Pitre who did nothing but light the Big 12 up throughout his extended stay in Waco. I’m most excited about the latter!
Pitre was one of the main reasons why Dave Aranda’s defense helped lead the team to an 11-win regular season and dominant triumph over Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl. He’d fit right into an NFL level secondary seamlessly. Hill impressed at the combine and is very versatile. Brisker hits like a runaway truck and showed a knack for forcing turnovers. All three of these players would make fine substitutes for pass defense needy teams at the tail end of the first round. As such, I recommend laying the heavy chalk and backing the over. It wouldn’t shock me in the least if three safeties were off the board by the time the second round begins!
NFL Draft Wager: Over 1.5
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