Quarterbacks, offensive linemen and wide receivers look to be the toast of the 2020 NFL Draft; at least in the first round. Linemakers aren’t very high on tight ends or running backs in the opening round of NFL Draft betting, but they’re very bullish on pass catchers with the position possessing the highest O/U on the first round along with the hogs up front. The number to beat has been set at 5.5 with heavy -263 vig now in support of the over at online sportsbooks. I’m sitting here scratching my head as to why the offering isn’t sitting closer to 7 as wide receiver needy a number of teams drafting in the first round currently look to be. The current implied probability of the over cashing in checks in at just over 72 percent. I have it rated much higher. Why don’t we take a deep dive into the player’s pool and see why I’m so high on this number being surpassed with ease.
5.5 Over -263
5.5 Under +202
Per usual, we’re going to target the teams that need to build wide receiver depth or find a WR1 for the future. I kid you not, I count 12 teams that will be looking to find a difference maker at the wide receiver position in this draft, and that’s one of the reasons why books are forcing NFL Draft bettors to eat a bunch of chalk with this wager. Of those teams, nine of them find the WR position locked in as either the No. 1 or No. 2 need entering the draft. Though I’m never a fan of laying this type of chalk, it actually might just be a bargain!
Though over bettors are likely going to need to sit through the first half of the draft with the first wide receiver not going off the board until the mid-teens, it will be a snowball effect immediately after with the position hogging most of the picks the remainder of the first round. As great both CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy were in their respective roles in Norman and Tuscaloosa, the duo is likely to be the first pass catchers taken off the board come April 23. The former caught 173 balls and turned them into nearly 3,300 receiving yards and 32 touchdowns, while the latter went for over 2,700 receiving yards and 26 TDs hauling in passes from Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa. Each exemplifies what first round talent is by definition. Potential suitors look to be the San Francisco 49ers, Las Vegas Raiders and New York Jets.
Jeudy’s teammate, Henry Ruggs, is also a likely selection in the teens of the first round after shining the last two seasons playing in the No. 2 role for Nick Saban. Rumors have it that the Denver Broncos got big eyes for him, but the New York Jets have also said to be in the mix should they miss out on the first two. Regardless, Ruggs and his top flight speed and solid hands would work wonders for either Sam Darnold or Drew Lock giving each another solid option to work with in what could be potentially lethal scoring attacks in 2020.
There might not be a team in bigger need of snagging an impact wide receiver than the Philadelphia Eagles. Carson Wentz had absolutely nobody to throw to at the tail end of last season with Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and DeSean Jackson all down for the count when it mattered most. The Eagles inability to make anything happen through the air cost them dearly in the 17-9 setback to the Seattle Seahawks in the playoffs. With that, any one of Justin Jefferson, Denzel Mims, Tee Higgins or Jalen Reagor could find their new home turn into the City of Brotherly Love right quick. Heck, Doug Pederson could get real frisky and draft the uber talented Brandon Aiyuk and throw a major wrench into expected mock drafts.
With numerous teams needing help at the wide receiver position and this draft rich in upper end pass catching talent, it only makes perfect sense to pay up to back the over. Again, I believe it should be much more costly to be able to get in the market at such a low entry point. Get as much down on the over as your out will allow! There’s simply just no way less than six wide receivers are drafted in the first round with the amount of talent that will be sitting at home waiting to hear their name called for a virtual walk to the podium.
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