No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence enters the 2021 season with more buzz than any player since Andrew Luck. Lawrence was heralded as the best quarterback prospect since Luck in high school, college, and prior to the NFL Draft, and it was a no-brainer that he would be the first player taken in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Jacksonville Jaguars had the fortune of selecting the potential franchise quarterback, and now we will get to see how he fares at the next level.
Trevor Lawrence Regular Season Passing Touchdowns
Over 24.5 -112
Under 24.5 -112
Although new head coach Urban Meyer says that Gardner Minshew and Trevor Lawrence are currently duking it out for the starting job, everyone believes that Lawrence will be the starter once the season gets underway. It’s rare to see No. 1 overall picks sit the bench, especially if they have the talent that is already evident with Lawrence.
A potential concern will be the status of the offensive line though. On his very first play in preseason, Jacksonville’s left tackle was beat off the edge and Lawrence was sacked and fumbled the ball. Cam Robinson is probably the best offensive lineman on the roster, and the Jaguars used the franchise tag on him this offseason, so that is a rather foreboding start.
The under is probably the best option here since the Jaguars will be a bad team that won’t have a lot of scoring opportunities. Last year’s No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow averaged 1.3 touchdown passes per game when he was healthy, and Kyler Murray threw just 20 touchdowns as a rookie after starting all 16 games.
Along those lines, we have seen nine quarterbacks taken No. 1 overall since the 2009 NFL Draft. The only quarterback among those nine to throw at least 25 touchdown passes as a rookie was Baker Mayfield in 2018, and not even Matt Stafford, Andrew Luck, and Jameis Winston could get it done in pass-happy offenses.
Trevor Lawrence Regular Season Passing Yards
Over 3995.5 -112
Under 3995.5 -112
It’s a different story in terms of passing yards though. Trevor Lawrence has a good chance of throwing for at least 4,000 yards given how often he will be asked to throw the ball on a team that will be trailing often during the 2021 season.
Joe Burrow was on pace to throw for more than 4,000 yards before suffering a season-ending injury, and Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray threw for over 3,700 yards as rookies despite being not nearly as pro ready as Lawrence coming out of college.
Additionally, the Jaguars’ quarterbacks combined to throw for 3,955 yards in 2020 despite not being nearly as talented as Lawrence. A healthy D.J. Chark Jr. figures to make a huge impact, and the receiving corps has improved with a more seasoned Laviska Shenault Jr. and a big play threat in Marvin Jones Jr. It really helps that there will be an extra game this season too.
Trevor Lawrence Regular Season Interceptions
Over 13.5 -112
Under 13.5 -112
The over is probably the right call here too given how often Lawrence will be throwing the ball. The learning curve for rookie quarterbacks is steep, and even stars like Peyton Manning struggled in their first season as Manning threw 26 interceptions as a rookie in 1998.
Trevor Lawrence NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
Yes +291
Although Lawrence is the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, it’s been hit or miss with quarterbacks taken No. 1 overall over the last decade and change. The only three No. 1 picks to be named OROY were Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, and Kyler Murray, and Murray was something of a surprise given the season that Josh Jacobs had with the Raiders.
Four other quarterbacks were selected in the first round, and there’s a good chance one of the other signal callers wins OROY over Lawrence, especially if they lead their team to the postseason.
Trevor Lawrence Regular Season Passing Yards Leader
Yes +5000
This is a huge longshot that might be worth a few dollars given what we saw from Patrick Mahomes II in 2018. Although Mahomes wasn’t a rookie when he announced himself to the league, he had only started one game when he threw for over 5,000 yards on his way to winning NFL MVP.
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