If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to be willing to take teams no one else wants to bet. I refer to these teams as ugly dogs and you really have to hold your nose sometimes when you bet on them, but history has shown that going against the public works. We are off to a good start this season, going 9-4 in the first three weeks of the season. Let’s take a look at the Week 4 Ugly Dog picks.
Week 4 Ugly Dog Picks
Miami Dolphins +16 vs. San Diego Chargers
Do you know what the record for this column would be if you took out the Miami Dolphins? Instead of being 9-4 we would be 9-1. We sure are not complaining with a 9-4 record heading into Week 4, but the Dolphins have been the one fly in the ointment. Miami did play better last week and showed a little bit of heart, but they still didn’t cover against Dallas. I have said that oddsmakers didn’t have a clue on Miami games in the first three weeks, as the public was going to bet against the Dolphins with both hands. The oddsmakers finally got the message and they made the Dolphins a big underdog this week. Did the oddsmakers overreact and go too far this week? It is possible, as the early line move is on Miami plus the points. The wise guys think there could be some value on the Dolphins this week and it is sure tough to trust the Chargers laying big points at any time. You knew we would be on the Dolphins again this week and that is the case, as we take the big points with Miami as an ugly dog.
Oakland Raiders +7 at Indianapolis Colts
It is looking like the Raiders win in Week 1 against Denver was a mirage. Or perhaps it was that the Broncos simply are not any good. Oakland has been blown out in the last two weeks by Kansas City and Minnesota. The Colts have looked really good so far this season with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback and they are a touchdown favorite at home. It is hard to back the Raiders going east, and there is no question they are an ugly dog, but we’ll take the Raiders plus the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 at Los Angeles Rams
The Buccaneers should have won last week, but instead of their quarterback giving away the game, it was their coach. Bruce Arians took a ridiculous delay of game penalty and then his kicker missed a field goal by inches that would have won the game. Now the Bucs go on the road to face a Los Angeles team that is unbeaten and featuring a stout defense. How many interceptions will Jameis Winston throw this week? This is what this column is all about and that is taking ugly dogs that not many people want to take. We’ll take the big points with Tampa Bay as an ugly dog.
Arizona Cardinals +5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
It is already obvious that Kliff Kingsbury is in over his head and Kyler Murray may not be as great as everyone thought. The Cardinals have a poor defense and their offense has not been nearly as good as advertised. Arizona should be 0-3, but they got a fortunate tie in Week 1. The Seahawks are coming off a bad game last week at home to New Orleans so they should be very focused for this one. The public should be all over Seattle in this one and ready to go against the Cardinals, even at home. There is not much to like about Arizona right now, and that makes them an ugly dog. We’ll take the points with the Cardinals in this one.
Check out the latest Week 4 NFL odds at BookMaker.eu.
