Betting on the underdog was a money maker again in Week 6 of the NFL regular season and a trend has emerged that has seen home dogs be extremely profitable over the last two weeks. Teams getting points were 8-5 with a push against the line last week with home dogs going 4-2 ATS and winning three of six games outright. In Week 5 home underdogs were 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. Miami pulled off the biggest upset of Week 6 beating Chicago at home as a 7-point pup.
Over bettors had a slight edge in Week 6 with eight of the 14 games exceeding the point total through Sunday night’s contest. It’s the third straight week that a majority of games have gone over the closing total, though the numbers have been close. The over has cashed in 24 of 43 games over the last three weeks with one push. Tampa Bay cleared the 57.5 point total in its loss to Atlanta and the over is 5-0. The Chiefs remained perfect against the spread covering the 3.5-point line in a loss to the Patriots on Sunday night.
NFL Week 6 Betting Summary
| WAGER | Favorite/Underdog |
| Straight Up | 9 – 5 |
| ATS | 5 – 8 – 1 |
| WAGER | Total (O/U) |
| Over/Under | 8 – 6 |
Biggest Week 6 Upsets
Miami Dolphins ( +7 ) 31, Chicago Bears 28
Word of Ryan Tannehill and his injured shoulder sitting out Sunday’s game against Chicago played havoc with the line on game day. The Bears opened as a slim 2-point favorite when the line hit the board last week, but a steady increase on the visitors pushed the line all the way to a touchdown by kickoff. The Fins sat their starting quarterback with an injury, turning to Brock Osweiler, and the backup saved the season while ending a two-game losing streak.
Showing just how unpredictable the game is, the Dolphins gouged Chicago’s top defensive unit for 541 total yards of offense, which was nearly 170 yards more than they’ve had in any game this season. And the Fins didn’t allow a sack, which was a big reason why Osweiler threw for 380 yards. And the Bears inability to tackle didn’t help. The Bears are ahead of schedule in their rebuild, but they aren’t ready to be crowned NFC North champs just yet.
Dallas Cowboys ( +3 ) 40, Jacksonville Jaguars 7
There is officially a problem in Jacksonville. Losing to Kansas City two weeks ago wasn’t a terrible loss. The Chiefs are one of if not the top team in the AFC, and turning the ball over the way they did doomed the Jags. But getting pummeled by the punchless Cowboys was hard to take. Sure, the Jags were without Leonard Fournette and the offensive line is banged up, but there is nothing wrong with the defense. At least there wasn’t until the Boys got a hold of them.
Jacksonville had the look of a team ready to make another trip to the AFC Championship with a pair of solid victories to open the season. Things have gone downhill since then. The Jags are just 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four and they’ve allowed 70 points combined in the last two games. They entered the Dallas game as a 3-point favorite but allowed points on all four of Dallas’ first half possessions and never threatened.
Biggest Week 6 Spreads
The Minnesota Vikings are no stranger to big lines this season. You might recall a few weeks ago they lost outright to Buffalo as a 16.5-point favorite. They entered Sunday’s matchup with Arizona laying 10 points, and although they didn’t cover, they didn’t lose either. The Vikings played a strong game defensively, giving up their only touchdown midway through the fourth quarter that allowed the Cards to push the line. Since losing to the Bills in Week 3, the Vikings are 2-0-1 ATS.
And speaking of the Bills, they were getting 10 points on the closing line for their game in Houston, covering the spread for the third time in their last four games in the 20-13 loss. They had a chance at another big upset by taking a fourth-quarter lead, but the Texans tied the game late on a field goal and Nathan Peterman, who was filling for the injured Josh Allen, tossed a pick-six in the closing minutes.
NFL Betting Odds
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