The Wise Guy Picks put forth another winning mark last week cashing in with the Raiders, Steelers and Texans with the lone defeat coming on the Chiefs. In this day and age of betting on the NFL, everyone wants to know where the sharp money is and what number they got in at. Most public bettors never get to reap the value as a sharp bettor. Often times, the two are butting heads and the purpose of this piece is to highlight the games of the week where public picks are facing off with wise guy picks at online sportsbooks.
LAST WEEK: 3-1 ATS / YTD 8-1 ATS
Houston vs. Kansas City
Public – Chiefs ( -5 )
Wise Guys – Texans ( +8.5 )
For the second straight week, public and sharp bettors are butting heads in a game involving the Houston Texans. Makes sense considering Kansas City has proven to be a major liability for online sportsbooks every time its stepped onto the field this season. However, public bettors are getting the best of the number with KC after sharp money pounced on Houston when it originally hit the board as 8.5-point underdogs on the lookahead lines. That was well before Deshaun Watson had a career game against Atlanta and the Chiefs fell at home to the Colts. With the opportunity of scoring a huge middle already there, don’t expect the pointspread to shorten up more than it already has.
Philadelphia vs. Philadelphia
Public – Eagles ( +3 )
Wise Guys – Vikings ( -3 )
A line has been drawn in the sand. Public bettors have jumped on the Eagles bandwagon in hopes of Doug Pederson’s squad winning and covering a third straight game that allows them to keep pace with Dallas who figures to log a road win at the Jets this weekend. However, sharp bettors are firmly aware that a huge bout against those same Cowboys is lined up for next Sunday night and it’s definitely within the realm of possibility that 100 percent of the Eagles attention doesn’t fall upon the Vikings. On the other hand, this is a statement game for Minnesota who sorely needs a resume boosting win like this after already falling to the Bears and Packers in division play. Minnesota has comfortably won and covered its two played home games, and sharp bettors are buying that streak extending to three in Week 6.
Seattle vs. Cleveland
Public – Over ( 47 )
Wise Guys – Under ( 47.5 )
The Browns just allowed Matt Breida and the San Francisco 49ers to run roughshod upon them on the ground last week to the tune of 275 yards and a couple of touchdowns. Surely Seattle will be able to mimic the feat with Chris Carson looking to log a third straight 100+ yard rushing effort after taking it to the Cardinals and Rams the last two weeks; right? Sharp bettors are pumping the brakes on that train of thought. Cleveland has bounced back with solid efforts each of the previous two times it went down in defeat this season coming up with wins and covers against the Jets and Ravens. While Baker Mayfield will no doubt be out to make amends for last week’s sickening effort, Cleveland is best served running the ball as much as possible with Nick Chubb. Should that occur, the clock will be tick tick ticking making the likelihood of a low scorer playing out all the more probable.
Detroit vs. Green Bay
Public – Lions ( +4 )
Wise Guys – Packers ( -4 )
The Lions have been one of the bigger surprises of the young season in getting out to 2-1-1 starts both straight up and against the spread. On top of that, they’ve had the Packers number the last two seasons by sweeping the rivalry. Making Detroit even more attractive in this spot is the fact that they’ll have had two weeks to prepare for the game, while Green Bay enters off a solid showing in Dallas where it took it to the Cowboys. Detroit has won each of its last two appearances on the “Frozen Tundra” but each was won without No. 12 under center. Sharp money bettors expect Aaron Rodgers to put on a show so as to not allow the Lions a chance to own any tiebreakers while at the same time let Detroit know who’s captain of the NFC North ship.
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