After putting forth mediocre picks the previous two weeks, the Wise Guy Picks erupted in Week 8 cashing tickets with the Giants, Chargers, Rams and Dolphins with the lone defeat coming on the Texans. In this day and age of betting on the NFL, everyone wants to know where the sharp money is and what number they got in at. Most public bettors never get to reap in the value of a sharp bettor. Often times, the two are butting heads but not always. Sometimes they’re in line with one another. The purpose of this piece is to highlight the games of the week where public picks are facing off with wise guy picks at online sportsbooks.
LAST WEEK: 4-1 ATS / YTD 16-6 ATS
San Francisco vs. Arizona
Public – 49ers (-7)
Wise Guys – Cardinals ( +10 )
Right out of the chute, online sportsbooks are forced to deal with one of the biggest liabilities of Week 9 when the 49ers and Cardinals square off in the desert. Public bettors flocked to the undefeated 49ers at halftime of last week’s home tilt with the Panthers up 27-3. San Francisco got hit with so much reckless abandon that they were steamed all the way up to -10! That’s when the wise guys stepped in. The money on Frisco on the road as double-digit chalk against a divisional opponent is almost laughable; especially when you take into account that the Cardinals have swept the rivalry each of the last four seasons. Revenge paired with the Niners being undefeated almost makes this one look too easy – buyer beware!
Chicago vs. Philadelphia
Public – Bears ( +5 )
Wise Guys – Eagles (-3)
As a Bears fan, it pains me to see the wise guys all lined up to fade the beloved in this playoff revenge match with the Eagles. Cody Parkey’s “Double Doink” continuously reverberates in my memory. Man would I love to see them avenge that defeat! Sharp bettors aren’t buying it however with 83 percent of the bet count and 75 percent of the money riding the Eagles at home off their huge road win at Buffalo that arguably saved their season. But as bad the Bears have looked, why did linemakers only open Philly up field goal chalk; could the public be onto something in this one?
Tampa Bay vs. Seattle
Public – Seahawks (-5.5)
Wise Guys – Buccaneers ( +6 )
It’s not so much that public and sharp bettors are knocking heads in this one. Actually, the sharp action midweek has been pretty much even on both sides. However, public bettors are all in on Russell Wilson and the Seahawks defending their house in a big way against the turnover machine otherwise known as Jameis Winston. If not for all four of his turnovers last week, the Bucs likely would’ve gone into Tennessee and come out a winner. Seattle enters this tilt with a +7 turnover margin and has forced 15 takeaways; seven coming by way of interceptions. Because of it, a whopping 87 percent of the public money resides with the home team. Yet, the number to beat only jumped half a point. It’s clear online sportsbooks have no issue taking in Seattle money at the current price point.
Green Bay vs. Los Angeles
Public – Packers (-3.5)
Wise Guys – Chargers ( +3.5 )
While sharp money also looks to be split in this matchup between the Packers and Chargers, public money has rained down upon the Packers to the point of nauseum. After going into Arrowhead and coming out a winner last week as 5-point road chalk, Aaron Rodgers and company have taken 71 percent of the public bet count and 90 percent of the public money making Green Bay one of the three biggest liabilities of the week for top rated sportsbooks. LA hasn’t been dogged in its own house in the regular season since 2017. That’s something Philip Rivers and company won’t take kindly to, at least that’s what the books are hoping.
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