It seems as if three of the Italian Champions League spots are already decided. Juventus, Napoli, and Inter Milan have put distance between themselves and the rest of Serie A, and it would be a surprise to see any of those three miss out. That would leave just one Champions League position available for the rest of Italy, and the competition for that spot is fierce. AC Milan are currently in the driver’s seat for the spot with 27 points, but there are seven teams within five points of them. Fiorentina is one of those teams, and they will be out to close the gap in a big way.
Don't miss the Italian Serie A action from San Siro in Milan, Italy at 9 a.m. ET on Saturday, December 22, 2018. Catch every moment of the match live on ESPN2.
Italian Serie A Betting Odds at BookMaker.eu
Milan +121
Fiorentina +247
Draw +223
Over/Under 2.5
Odds Analysis
Fiorentina have settled for a lot of draws in recent weeks. At one point, Fiorentina played five straight opponents to draws, and that cost them a chance to make up some ground on the rest of the teams in Italy. They were able to pick up a huge win in their last match though, grabbing all three points for the first time since late September. Fiorentina overcame an early Empoli goal to win 3-1.
Following a stunning defeat at the hands of Olympiakos, AC Milan are out of the Europa League. It was a tough pill to swallow for fans of the proud club, but making it back to the Champions League would alleviate those worries at the end of the day. The club has picked up a result in each of its last four matches after a loss to Juventus last month, but AC Milan are in danger of being caught. They played Lazio, Torino, and Bologna to draws and their only win came against Parma.
Injury Report
There are no injuries to report for Fiorentina ahead of this match. While every other club in Serie A seems to be dealing with injuries, Fiorentina has barely been touched and that certainly helps.
AC Milan have not been so fortunate. Lucas Biglia, Giacomo Bonaventura, and Mattia Caldara are all long-term injuries, and Ivan Strinic continues to be out due to heart issues. Tiemoue Bakayoko will miss the match too after receiving a red card against Bologna on Tuesday.
Player to Watch
Netting goals has been something of an issue for Milan in recent weeks. They have been shut out in their last two Serie A games, and they have scored just three times in their last five domestic matches.
It seems as if opponents have figured out that Milan don’t have many offensive weapons, so they have focused their attention on Suso. Suso has been the best table setter in the league thus far, and his eight assists are the most in Serie A. He was incredible early on this year, but he has not tallied an assist since a road match against Udinese in early November. Suso has not scored a goal or an assist in eight straight matches, and that’s a problem since he is also the club’s second-leading scorer.
Serie A Prop Bet – Both Halves Total Under 1.5 +136
Given these teams’ scoring woes, I’m a little surprised the total isn’t 2 and 2.5, so I like the value here. Fiorentina and AC Milan can each play good defense, and there isn’t likely to be many scoring chances for either side.
Free Soccer Betting Pick
Italian soccer seems to have more draws than any other country, and I’m going to call for another draw here. These times have combined to finish with a draw 13 times in 32 matches, so there is decent value in that selection.
Italian Serie A Odds: AC Milan 1, Fiorentina 1
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