AC Milan are in a bad spot. The historic club finished in sixth place in Serie A and missed out on the Champions League last year, and they are in even more danger through the first quarter of this campaign. Milan are sitting in 12th place in the league with 12 points, and while they are in little danger of being relegated, they need to find results quickly to return to European action. Sampdoria are one of the teams in front of them, and a win for Milan against the club on Sunday would bolster their chances and hurt a team in front of them.
Don't miss the Italian Serie A action from the San Siro in Milan, Italy at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 28, 2018. Catch every moment of the match live on ESPN.
Serie A Betting Odds at BookMaker.eu
Sampdoria +490
AC Milan -192
Draw +332
Over/Under 2.5 and 3
Odds Analysis
Sampdoria have continued to build after finishing 10th in the table last year. The club is sitting in fifth place at this juncture, and while many don’t expect them to remain there, that performance is a testament to their quality. They have picked up a result in each of their last four matches, and they have notched some impressive results. Sampdoria hammered Napoli 3-0 at home in early September, and they also drew with Fiorentina a few weeks later. They nearly grabbed a draw against Inter Milan last month too, but Inter’s Marcelo Brozovic scored four minutes into stoppage time to deal Sampdoria a defeat.
There have been some incredibly disappointing results for AC Milan thus far this year. The club has drawn with minnows like Cagliari and Empoli, and they suffered tough losses at the hands of both Napoli and city rivals Inter Milan. The latter result stings significantly, as it looked like the two Milan clubs would play to a draw until Inter’s Mauro Icardi struck in the second minute of overtime.
Injury Report
AC Milan continue to be without the services of Ivan Strinic. The Croatian defender was diagnosed with a heart condition in August, and he was told he needed to quit football for at least a few months as a result. He may come back in December, but the situation seems very fluid. Midfielder Riccardo Montolivo is likely to be out too.
The visitors won’t have at least two players available for this one. Right back Gabriele Ronaldo has left the team for personal reasons, and it’s unclear when he will return. Additionally, left back Vasco Regini is still rehabbing an injury and he will miss the match too.
Matchup to Watch
Marco Giampaolo is a defensive wizard. Sampdoria’s manager has lost a number of players over the last couple years, but his defense continues to be one of the best in Europe and is currently the best in Italy. Through eight matches, Sampdoria have only allowed four goals, and the defense has been carrying the weight for significant periods of time.
Milan has some talented offensive options, and they will be out to break through the back line. Argentine forward Gonzalo Higuain leads the team with four goals, and he is optimistic that his touch could be just what Milan needs in this one.
Serie A Prop Bet – Under 1.5 goals +336
Given Sampdoria’s play in the back end and Italy’s low-scoring style, I’m surprised this option is available at this price. The visitors haven’t been incredibly high scoring, and teenage goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma has played well in net.
Free Soccer Betting Pick
As long as AC Milan can shut down Gregoire Defrel, I like my chances on the under. Defrel has accounted for five goals on the year, and he and 35-year-old Fabio Quagliarella have accounted for the team’s offense. Milan will come up with a way to shut them down for a low-scoring win.
Italian Serie A Odds: AC Milan 1, Sampdoria 0
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